Friday, August 3, 2007

Investment Bubble 3 - Catastrophic Oil Prices

Goldman Sachs Group previously mentioned that oil may be at US$100 by 2009. Now that figure may just well be only a few months away. Last Friday, oil price is at US$77.02/barrel. In Jan 07, Oil prices was below $50/barrel.

Why Oil prices rise?
Demand increase is largely led by the recovering US economy, China and India where more cars, trucks and factories are burning oil fast. The cost of finding and pumping oil is also rising steadily due to shortage of deepwater drilling rigs and skilled workers to run them.

Under what circumstances will oil prices rise sharply?
1) If US pull its troop out from Iraq and Iraq went into Civil War.
2) If Nigeria break into another Civil War
3) If there are any military strike against Iran
4) If Opec cut production for some currently unknown reason

What happens if oil prices rise?
1) All your electricity, transportation expenses rise
2) All your food prices rise due to rise in Transportation
3) When all basic amenities rise, you have less money for other things
4) When you spend less on other things, businesses make a loss.
5) When businesses lose money, they retrench people
6) When more jobless people, less money pumped into economy
7) When less money into economy, the country may goes into recession
8) So, can you see the effect now?

So whats the conclusion?


Anonymous said...

We leave in an uncertain world. And uncertain world where we simply have no control.

Somehow uncertaintly has evolved the entire world.

Oil Prices is just one of the many things that go through a round about of ups and downs and really will eventually cause a major impact as nations become over dependent on Oil resources.

If you read document presented by: Daniel Howden on June 2007.

Complete story:

World oil supplies are set to run out faster than expected, warn scientists
Scientists challenge major review of global reserves and warn that supplies will start to run out in four years' time

By Daniel Howden
Published: 14 June 2007
Scientists have criticised a major review of the world's remaining oil reserves, warning that the end of oil is coming sooner than governments and oil companies are prepared to admit.

BP's Statistical Review of World Energy, published yesterday, appears to show that the world still has enough "proven" reserves to provide 40 years of consumption at current rates. The assessment, based on officially reported figures, has once again pushed back the estimate of when the world will run dry.

Anonymous said...

Any comments to the above?

Khiat Han Hwee Adrian said...

I am not able to find the article linked by you but I'm able to see where you come from.

Oil shortage is a big problem, but this problem, is not pressing enough and cannot be solved. So who will want to take up a problem with no solution? Therefore people deny this problem existence.

Anyway, small people like you and me cannot solve this problem. When it comes, the world will be forced to think of solutions.

The world is probably more concern on global warming. The problems are surfacing slowly. We can see that our world is getting hay-wired with freak weathers.